A top analyst explains why everyone’s overreacting to Facebook’s data scandal (FB)

Twitter Inc.
fell after warning that the pace of revenue growth will slow.

While beating earnings estimates for the first quarter, the social media company said it would be difficult to produce growth rates in the second half of the year that top those of 2017, when a broad-based recovery began. As a result, revenue growth will resemble that of 2016.

That sent the shares tumbling 7.7 percent, reversing earlier gains of as much as 14 percent when the quarterly earnings were first released before the market open. Benchmark stock indexes were also
Wednesday, as investors mulled the impact of rising bond yields and disappointing earnings. Twitter was down 3 percent, to $29.55, at 11:27 a.m. in New York.

The caution put a damper on the nascent turnaround that saw Twitter remain in the black for the second quarter in a row after more than 16 quarters of losses. Twitter’s push into live video and more personalized content appears to be starting to pay off, boosting revenue and profit by luring users and advertisers. Sales jumped 21 percent, the most in two years, to $664.9 million in the first quarter, the company
. Originally known for its 140-character posts, Twitter said monthly active users rose to 336 million, up by 6 million from the prior period.

“Twitter is still in rebuilding credibility mode with investors and advertisers, so it’s important they keep demonstrating momentum relative to expectations,” said Richard Greenfield, an analyst at BTIG. “They are continuing to position themselves so expectations don’t get out of control.”

Monthly user growth was up only 2.8 percent from a year ago, the slowest pace in two years. That contrasts with Facebook, which has six times more users than Twitter and increased its monthly users by 14 percent in the fourth quarter. Facebook reports earnings Wednesday afternoon.

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And more of Twitter’s growth is now coming from international markets as the U.S. gets saturated. Monthly active users in the U.S. increased by 1 million from the fourth quarter to 69 million. Internationally, MAUs grew to 267 million users from 262 million. Revenue in the U.S. increased 2 percent year-over-year, while international revenue jumped 53 percent.

Booming Growth

International revenue grew by the most in almost three years

Source: Company filings

Chief Executive Officer
Jack Dorsey
, who also runs mobile payments platform Square Inc., has focused on making Twitter more useful, including streaming programming such as National Football League highlights and recaps of series like “Game of Thrones.” The company is applying artificial intelligence to put the most relevant tweets at the top of people’s feeds, and has added features that curate tweets, photos and videos around events. Twitter said daily active users increased 10 percent in the recent period, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit increases. The company doesn’t give a total number for DAUs.

Dorsey has been honing the platform into a place to see “what’s happening now,” and positioning the site as the place to find out about live events from news to concerts.

Awareness of Twitter’s brand has also gotten a boost from frequent tweets by public figures like U.S. President Donald Trump, who is among the platform’s most high-profile users. Global events like the Olympic games and government elections also help to drive user growth.

And as Twitter has worked to root out terrorist content and abusive trolls, advertisers’ perceptions of the platform are also improving, according to a survey conducted by RBC Capital Markets and Ad Age.

“Twitter’s video ad product continues to perform well as advertisers continue to look for higher quality online video impressions,” wrote Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak, a
long-time Twitter bear
who upgraded the stock to equal-weight last week, citing improved personalization that’s keeping users on Twitter for longer.

Twitter posted net income of $61 million, or 8 cents a share, in the first quarter, Marking its second quarter of profit under generally accepted accounting principles. That compared with analyst projections for a net loss of 2 cents on average. Profit excluding some costs was 16 cents a share, exceeding estimates for 12 cents.

The company gave a second-quarter outlook for adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $245 million to $265 million. Analysts estimated $218 million.

Bloomberg LP produces TicToc, a global breaking news network for the Twitter service.

While Twitter seems to have found a path for growth, Dorsey is being
pressed to follow
in the footsteps of Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg and testify before U.S. Congress about data privacy. Twitter, Facebook and Google are all facing calls for
potential regulation
on internet companies following revelations that political-consulting firm Cambridge Analytica harvested private data from some 87 million Facebook users. Twitter itself was found to be overrun by Russian bots during the 2016 U.S. election cycle.

Twitter continues to address criticism that it hasn’t done enough to combat the spread of misinformation, harassment and manipulation from automated posts. Last month Dorsey asked the public to propose solutions to make the social network a
nicer place
by measuring “collective health, openness, and civility of public conversation.” Twitter is working on a “transparency center” to show how much political campaigns spend on advertising, and the company endorsed the
Honest Ads Act
, a Senate bill that would subject online political ads to the same sort of disclosure rules that govern similar content on TV and radio.

Twitter said it’s limited the ability of users to perform coordinated actions across multiple accounts, which has resulted in roughly 90 percent fewer users creating fake or automated engagement through the social media dashboard TweetDeck. In the first quarter, the company said it removed more than 142,000 applications connected to Twitter that violated developer rules and were collectively responsible for more than 130 million “low-quality” tweets during the same period.

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